terrible DV of tsunami

Internet and digital video make people can record everything, including tragedy:
terrible tsuanami 1
terrible tsuanami 2
terrible tsuanami3(from a Japan TV station, the tourist were mading fun of tsunami when it came)

This advertisement is funny

If you want to advertise for a airticket sale website, here is one of the examples. I can't help laughing until the last minute.

Animal died far less

No one count the bodies of the animals after the tsunami. It will be amazing if people can find the exact dead body of animals and compare it with the humans.
AP reported that wildlife officials in Sri Lanka expressed surprise Wednesday that they found no evidence of large-scale animal deaths from the weekend's massive tsunami. The report quoted a hotel owner, saying that the animal may have a six sense. That can not be proved now. But I would like to argue that human has the six sense, also, though we always miss it or neglect it.

The high possbility of the earthquake in Tokyo

Not sure if it is true or not. But please take care.
The experts said that Tokyo will be the next country to be hit by big earthquake after Indonesia.

The professors in Tokyo University said that the possbility for Tokyo to be hit by the earthquake higher than 6.9 megarade will be 70 per cent.(link in Chinese) Millions of people will be affected if it happens.

Wow, it will be really terrible.

The guess of Chinese telecom industry in 2005

It is a little boring if the media is full of the articles like: the best news in 2004, the most important events in 2004, because all of them has already happened. Why not predict the future in 2005, and then verify it at the end of the year? It is like gambling, but you will win if you know the skill.
(1) MII will distribute 3G license to the operators or not next year? If so, how many and what standard?
This is the long dispute in China when 3G developed. My guess is that the license should be distributed next year according to the many actions happened recently. But it is hard to say how many. If I have to say, I think it should be two or four, depending if the four main operators will merge to two. TDSCDMA will be applied in a small part, with WCDMA and CDMA2000 be applied as well.
(2) IP TV will be a major development for the fixed line operators, that are China Telecom and China Netcom. China Telecom has already provide the service called "Inter Sky" to provide data and infos via broadband. China Netcom has invited the media tycoon Rupert Murdoch to be the independent director, which certainly shows its ambitious plan to enter into media fields. IPTV is the best way to implement their plan without offending the authority.
(3) China Telecom and China Netcom would like to share the profit with the other two, China Mobile and Unicom, in the mobile phone service. The source in China Telecom said that they would order the mobile phone less than 1000 RMB to provide the voice service, if they get the 3G license. The price fight can not be avoided, which will benefit the customers. But the authority may be reluctant to see that.
(4) Telecom manufacturers could still enjoy the contract with main operators. Until now, ZTE and Huawei has extended their business to overseas market, partly showing they can't compete with the foreign tycoons in the local market. l
(5) Local content providers should focus on other business instead of SMS. The market has so many competitors and a major merge may appear to syndicate the sources.
(6) A great chang of high officials will happen in MII and other operators.

Anyway, it is just my personal guess based on my understanding...

the leading TV producer faces great unpaid accounts with a US company

New York Times published an article today about the Chinese leading TV producer and exporter's great loss due to the huge unpaid accounts with a US company named Apex Digital.(Not a responsible website because many links are dead)

Apex has been the major US cooperator with Changhong, the biggest TV producer in China since 2001. According to the data from Changhong, Alex has not paid the $480 million(not billion, thanks for Fon's tips) dollars for the export product of Chang Hong until now. That's part of the reason the CEO of the Apex digital, JI Longfen, is jailed by the police from the Sichuan provice, where Chang Hong is based.
The stock trading of Chang Hong has been closed yesterday. The spokeman said the reason was that ChangHong will release the report with great loss that day.

It is not the news to many insiders who are familiar with the development of Chang Hong. In July, the magazine Caijing has already published an article about the leaving of the company's creator, Ni Runfeng. The article has implied that the new management will take action against its debt, than implied, in some extent, the news today. Five month, is a right time for the new management familiar with all the relations and prepare for the actions.

If it is true that Mr. Ji, the CEO of Apex, was jailed in Sichuan now, Changhong has obviously made up its mind to settle the unpaid amount with Apex. But what is harder is how it can compete with the other counterparts in the overseas market and avoid the guilty of dumping. That's the most important thing for Changhong's future development.

The world's youngest blogger

A eleven-year-old girl who set up a video blog under the help of her father. Hmmm, not that bad, indeed. She is relax facing the camera.

I checked the top 20 stock share losers in Hong Kong Ex and didn't find the aerospace and tourism shares as radio said today. Quite strange. Just because Hong Kong is safe?

Asian stockmarket affected by the disaster

The list of stockmarkets in several affected countries:

Colombo, Sri Lanka All share
Bursa Malaysia (the previous Kuala Lumpur, Composite Malaysia)
Jakarta Composite in Indonesia
Bankok SET in Thailand

Why no one has predicted such a terrible tsunamis?

The question has been in my mind since the tsunamis happened. I have experienced the feeling of losing the families in the earthquake, and I know the importance to tell people the happening of the disaster before hands. The technology is not that difficult to implement: see here, the method how to predict the tsunamis; see here,how scientists learn to predict the tsunamis; But why not to predict this time so that many people can leave the coast at least?

One possible reason is that scientist beliven 90 per cent of the tsunamis happen in the Pacific Ocean, but the other 10 per cent of possbility should also be emphasized because even one human life is important; The other possible reason is the local government missed(or neglected) the warning from the sources, because many affected countries are depending on the tourist industry and the time is the most busy season.

Look back to the disaster list on Reuters: Asia and Africa have been the most two frequent place for the disaster to happen; The victims are going up because of the tourists from all over the world. We have to admit we are not God.

Subscribe the RSS feed about Earthquake

If it is hard to survive in the earthquake, we should try to predict when it will happen. You can try this website provided by United States Geological Survey to subscribe the RSS feeds. In the latest Indian Ocean earthquake, the magnitude was first reported as 8.1 by the United States Geological Survey, but after further analysis they increased this first to 8.5 and 8.9 and finally 9.0.

Wikipedia published detailed introduction of the earthquake and how to donor to the victims in the earth quake.


Hope I can be helpful, in some extent. There is a word on the bbc news message board that impressed me: "We must send all available aid to Asia". Though nature is more powerful, we can do what we do to help ourselves.

I have two classmates in Indonesia and Thailand. Best wishes to them and hope they are safe.

Christmas Eve sharing

It was Christmas that made Hong Kong people stop their working and enjoy a peaceful holiday. People go to church, and enjoy the Christmas ceremony. They look back their lives in the old year, and send the good wishes to the next year. It's a pityI don't believe in God, but I do think people should have such kind of experience when the new year is coming. Here is my list:

Thanks to the professors who gave me the oppotunity to study in Hong Kong. Without them, I can't enjoy such a wonderful world as now.
Thanks to my parents, who support me without any hesitate. I owe them so much that I can't pay back in my whole life.
Thanks to my friends, who are always there to help me, to share with the experience with me, which made me not feel alone at all.

My three wishes:
same with the ones last year...

Christmas Present

Jan(chinese blog) is so nice to share a German ecard website with me, and it is really fantanstic. You can write your wishes into the picture just as it is the real photo. I became crazy about it and spend my whole afternoon making cards for all my friends. Maybe you can try to make cards for your friends, too. But don't be that crazy like me.

Here is my card to Fons, and he asked me if it is real. Well, it is :)

Not only China has statistic problem

EU has called for great power of Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency, to guarantee the quality of all the member's burgetary data, following the warning against Greece's burget promise, according to IHT.

Is there any similarity between the economic structure of EU and China? hmmm...

Three sectors worried Chinese government

A top trade official disclosed the obstacle of China's WTO comittment is local government protectionism, which may partly explain the reason for Chinese government to change the way to get the statistic.

Sun Zhenyu, the mainland's first ambassador to the World Trade Organisation, said local governments, as a whole, had been unable to fully understand the importance of abiding by WTO rules, according to SCMP.

Separately,the central government announced that the responsible authority to release the statistic of GDP will change from provincial goverment to the central statistic department. several days ago. The annoucement said that the central government will especially focus on the index of investment, agriculture and price.

Coincidentally, in the speech given by Sun Zhenyu, " Mr Sun's concerns had focused on the potentially harmful effects on sectors such as banking, insurance and agriculture", quote from SCMP.

It is not hard to imagine what will be the hot topic in mainland China in the next few years.

It is good or bad if Google make all the books readable on the Internet?

People oppose it when Google announced that it would turn all the books in several major library into the digital formet; They said it would bring problems to copyright and the damage of the valuable books. But please wait a minute: Do you see the future trends of digial book?

I have been reading the online resource to contribute to several of my term papers; I know there are many valuable books in the library. But I don't have time to go through the books one by one because I only want to know certain topics and chapters in the books. So I use "Google Scholar", which can return the exact information I want. Not only me, but also my classmates, did the same way. One day, I told myself, if we are all depending on the online resource, the content of all the paper work will disappear from people's mind in the future. Maybe our children will not know what has happened if there is no online book to tell them.

I may be afraid so much: Google has a dream to set up some digital library, so do others. So I don't need to worry about it. Copyright is the tool to protect the writers, but if nobody know the writers, why to protect them. Copyright and knowledge sharing are contradicted with each other. But knowledge is more important than the copyright in the long-term of human development.

The damage of the books is arguable, also. If nobody read the books, why spend so much money protect them? If everybody can read them online, why spend money to protect them. too? I know the books are valuable, but people's memory of the content from the books are even more valuable.

God bless digital library so that we will not forget the paper books.

Iraqi people can't sue

The veteran Chinese judge in the International law said that the Iraqi people can't sue against the United States in the International Court of Justice, the court adjudicating disputes between states.

Judge Shi Jiu yong, the President of International Court of Justic, said that the Iraqi people can't sue in the court because they are not on behalf of the state. Even if there is a temporary government, it can not sue in the case that it is not authorised by the United Nations.

In Dec. 15, the Court has released its judgement on the Legality of Use of Force between Serbia and other eight countries. In one judgement, it is said that Serbia and Montenegro was not a Member of the United Nations in 1999 and, as a result, was not then a party to the Statute of the Court.

It makes me remind of the book The Lexus and the Olive Tree wrote by Friedman. States should be last line of defense to protect the people.

Hong Kong 3G operators are running after each other, who will win?

Smartone has become the second 3G operator, in the competition with CSL, another carries who yelled to be the second, while the previous, sole 3G operator, Hutchson, is still struggling to earn more.

Smartone has done a good job on their website with detailed introduction of the new service, while CSL still advertises its Christmas discount of 2G phone. Except for the normal service like music and wallpaper, Smartone has done a good job to provide business news of Dow Jones. But I would like to remind that the direct news from the news wires always makes people confused. I am one of the example when subscribing to the Reuters.

I guess Smartone can do a better job than CSL in the coming future, while the two will both experience a hard time to make money. By the way, why every Hong Kong operators use the same or almost same tariff to charge the users? They are always based on the time, on the data volume, but don't they forget what they provide is the content? Why not using charging on content? (Wow, it is one of my favorite charging principles, but unfortunately, the billing system should be perfect enough)

GDP will be released by the national adminstration

The central stastic government will release the GDP data, include all the provinces, from 2005. It will especially focus on the index of investment, agriculture and price. (link in Chinese)

The number of GDP in China has been a great benchmark these years, though not many outsiders enquiries its validity. Part of the reason is due to the fault or error in the provincial statistics. Fortunately, they have paid attention to it.

But the question is how much money and human resource can they spend to detailedly record the national statistics?

speculate RMB's revaluation on the Chinese Art market

Chinese Art market is more and more popular these days. One of the famour Art companies called RongBaoZhai has held its autumn auction forum, where the trade money has been up to 100 million RMB(about 12 million USD) in the morning of Dec. 18. (Link in Chinese).
It is hard to imagine how many of the bidders are interested in the art, but some funds speculated at the ravulation of RMB are joining the auction, aiming at taking advantage of the revaluation of RMB in the future.
It is reported that the average auction amount for Chinese art market per year is about 3 billion RMB(about 360million USD). I assume that the number will be up to four times in 2004, according to the latest market trends. It will bring great pressure to RMB in short-term, though the foreign reservce is up to 100 billion USD in China.
There is two way to solve the problem: One is the Chinese government intefere with the market as they did in the property field, but it is hard; The other is to suggest the Chinese bidders to buy foreign art work to balance the exchange rate. But it seems that not many people are interested in the foreign art work now. They are still going after the Chinese art work now. One example is a tycoon in Tianjin has bought the stamp of the latest rocket launching signed by the astaurant, in the price of 2.2 million RMB.
The latest edition of Businessweek showed a story the reason why collectors are crazy for Chinese art. It is a pity that he only referred to the collectors' interest in the art work, without mentioning the purpose of some speculators.